A foolish question to ask when a team is one win away from the NBA Finals is, “Just how good is this team that’s about to go to the NBA Finals?” This is especially true when the team is leading the series 3-0.
Nevertheless, it appears that the Dallas Mavericks are here. A Mavericks club that, according to Cleaning the Glass’ net-rating, has dropped four games overall in postseason against the seventh, third, and second-best teams in the NBA.
To be completely honest, none of this matters. The majority of the discussion around the Mavericks’ eligibility for the Finals has emerged online, primarily through Twitter arguments and some noise from podcasts. The majority of the Mavericks players probably don’t give a damn about what some of us blog boys are writing, and this isn’t the overwhelming storyline. However, it’s bothering me, so here I am with what seems like a bolder and more courageous opinion:
The NBA’s Mavericks are a top squad.
I realize it’s shocking. To most impartial onlookers, the Mavericks are a brave upstart who occurred to make it to the Finals by accident and shooting variance, regardless of what the team has accomplished since Kyrie Irving returned from a lengthy injury layoff on February 5. Disregard these true incidents that took place in front of God and everyone else:
The Mavericks were 24-9. From February 5 to the end of the season, they were. That equates to 33 games, or 40% of the schedule. That is a significant enough sample size to conclude that “yes, this appears real.” The popular response to that is “post-All Star break doesn’t matter,” which implies that the NBA’s gloomy late February and early March slump negates most of the work teams do.
The reasoning goes that most elite teams are simply waiting for the postseason to begin, most bottom teams are waiting for their summer vacations to begin, and everyone is so exhausted and injured that the games lose their competitive edge. My answer is accurate historically, but since the play-in was introduced in 2020, it seems like there has been a noticeable rise in overall season-ending competition.
When the Mavericks defeated the Kings by forty points in late March, and both teams were fighting for the sixth spot, do you think the Kings weren’t trying to win as many games as they could? Were the Warriors or the Lakers taking it easy? Did the Suns cruise to victory or did they and New Orleans battle mightily to try to avoid a play-in game? In my opinion, there was more competitive basketball throughout the season than in seasons prior to the play-in.
This is especially true when you take into account the 65-game regulation, which required the best players to play more in order to be eligible for big accolades like MVP and All-NBA. I think it’s ridiculous to dismiss the Mavericks’ actions as late-season noise, especially after Irving’s injury and following the transactions. It was 33 games, and Dallas basically maintained it the entire time. It wasn’t like it was a two-week hot streak. Due to Luka Doncic’s injury and relaxation after securing the fifth seed, the Mavericks only dropped a couple of games towards the end of the season.
By the deadline, the talent upgrades were genuine. In his final season with the Hornets, PJ Washington, a 12th overall pick from Kentucky, averaged 15 points per game and had respectable defensive block/steal statistics. For the past few years, Daniel Gafford’s rim protection statistics have been quite strong. The only truly “lucky” acquisition to their squad is undoubtedly Derrick Jones Jr.
However, since winning in this league is so difficult, every contender usually needs a man pop like that to work, like Bruce Brown did when he went from playing competent but unspectacular seasons in Brooklyn to blowing up in Denver. You cannot convince me that this group, or even the 2022 Western Conference Finals team, is comparable in talent to any of the previous Doncic rosters.
They were excellent, using undrafted free agents and second round picks in crucial positions. Dallas now has lottery selections and players selected in the first round filling up the majority of the starting lineup and rotation places.
A lot of this is influenced by Dereck Lively’s draft position and his talent; nobody could have predicted that he would develop to this level so rapidly. That’s what my season forecasts indicated, anyway. However, it was evident very soon that they had hit the jackpot, and as the season progressed, he only became better. Since Lively’s influence on this team has been evident since the first game of the season, it is not surprising that he has improved more.
The Mavericks are one game away from eliminating the club with the third-best net rating after defeating the teams ranked seventh and second in net rating to advance to the conference finals. It’s fair to bring up the Clippers series; sure, Kawhi Leonard is significant, but Doncic was hurt too, and did anyone ever believe the Mavericks could win a postseason series with Doncic shooting only slightly better than 40 percent from the field and 30 percent from three? The Mavericks defense, which persisted from the regular season, is the only reason that occurs. It’s absurd how the Thunder shot variance point works. The closest defender who is six feet away is considered to be “wide open,” and on “wide open” shots, the Thunder shot 40.7 percent from three, according to NBA.com’s tracking data. Against Oklahoma City, Dallas only managed to make three more wide-open threes in the series. The opponents of the Mavericks are hitting 36% from three point range overall in the playoffs.
Given how unlikely it is to be a lucky number, how much variation is there really? Five out teams that spanned the three point line with their center were the only kind of team that caused Dallas problems upon Irving’s return on February 5. Observe the Pacers vs. Celtics games immediately following the deadline. Although it’s obvious that the Thunder were the most difficult team they’ve faced thus far, the Thunder *should* have given this defense fits, but they didn’t.
Even with the Thunder playing at full strength and the Mavericks lacking Maxi Kleber—who played well in the second half of the season and the Clippers series—Dallas managed to win in six games even without home court advantage. The Wolves were the third seed, and the Thunder were the single seed. In the season-long net rating, they were ranked two and three. It’s hardly possible for the Mavericks to have won both of them with only two losses—possibly even fewer, depending on how the Wolves series plays out—can be attributed to fortunate matches or unlucky shooting.
This Mavericks club is real, and they don’t use smoke and mirrors in their defense. Even though the three-point shot is so crucial, teams will find it difficult to score if the rim and the paint are taken away.
Gafford traps up top, Mavs weak-side defenders shrink the floor – Kyrie with the gap help, PJ Washington as the low man. They make a controlled closeout, & Gafford returns to the paint and provides the requisite rim protection
Mavs defense has been awesome pic.twitter.com/8JJ9JbeVdY
— buddhaball🏀 🍉 (@SiddharthNBA) May 27, 2024
Their style of play is undoubtedly aided by the rule modifications that call for fewer fouls, but those modifications apply to all players. The Mavericks had the sixth-best offensive and sixth-best defense from February 5 to the end of the season, and their net rating would have placed them fourth in the league overall. If the Mavericks had begun the season with the squad they had after the deadline, would we even be having this conversation? I don’t think so.
Before everyone agrees that “Well damn this team might be elite themselves,” a team has to defeat two of the top three teams in net rating and do so very convincingly. It’s not the Mavericks’ fault that they were unable to play the Nuggets, any more than it was the 2011 champion team’s fault that they were unable to play the Spurs, who were beaten by the Grizzlies in the opening round.
The Nuggets didn’t exactly have a murder’s row playoff run last season; according to Cleaning the Glass, they faced teams rated 12th (the Suns), 16th (the Wolves), and 17th (the Lakers). I have stated on numerous occasions that I thought that club was unstoppable. since they actually were! It’s absurd to think that this Dallas club will go away quickly like Miami did the previous season.
Miami never was as hot from three as they were from there during the regular season. Dallas’ superior defense, which was evident in the last 33 regular season games, is helping them win. It always seemed sustainable because, in my opinion, taking away the rim entails more than just taking away threes. In basketball, the best shots are those made at the rim.
The fact that every Mavericks opponent has had offensive difficulties against them is not surprising, as denying a basketball club access to the paint is akin to depriving them of oxygen. Against the Mavericks, opponents shot 61.3 percent from the rim from February 5 to the end of the season, which was the third-best percentage in the league at that time. The Mavericks are leading all postseason teams in opponents’ field goal percentage (56.4%) at the rim.
The Mavericks are one victory away from the NBA Finals, and unless something extraordinary occurs, they ought to secure their place in the series in the coming days, if not on Tuesday following Game 4. This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to those who have been watching for the majority of the last three months. Top teams operate in this manner.